Monday, May 4, 2020 - 10:17 Leo Olivero

Where nobody is right or wrong because nobody really knows

The Covid Health and Economic outlook evolves on a daily basis. But in these moments when the good of all hinges on the sacrifices of many, clear coordination matters, as does the importance of social distancing and of course the washing of hands for at least 20 seconds, repeatedly impressed upon a public who at all times must also be reassured and informed the all-round truth!

The Abnormal Health Crisis

Those people, working out the effectiveness of the many unprecedented measures implemented worldwide to limit the spread of the coronavirus, must be now, one of the most pressing questions for global experts. The same experts and other professionals also hope that eventually, they will be able to accurately predict ‘how adding and removing Covid measures affects transmission rates and infection numbers’. But nobody really knows if that will work or not because of the different variables among nations around the world?

As we have heard, the latter, is essential information to be able to design strategies to return life to normal, while keeping the virus spread low to prevent second waves of infection. Though luckily, Gibraltar really didn’t have a first wave to boast about. But let’s hope, if we do have a second wave of sort, it’s exactly the same as the first.

Commenting or repeating, ‘returning to normal’ sounds perfectly normal, but it’s not or won’t be, particularly in the context of the present global coronavirus existence. As it’s obvious there will be nothing normal about the immediate future, far from it. So, the sooner we all accept ‘the new normal’ whatever that will eventually end up as, the less pain and anxiety many in Gibraltar will endure, who will obviously long for the old or previous normal. But as the title of the report suggest, this is an abnormal health crisis, where everything is still up in the air.

Generally, we have been informed in daily press briefings, how countries are working on models using data from individual countries to understand the effect of the different controls or Covid measures. The idea is to combine data from around the world which might allow public health people and researchers to compare each countries’ responses.

As I see it, it all sounds easier than what it is really is or how it’s going to be? Designing these Covid models that make more accurate predictions about new phases of the pandemic across many nations is going to be unpredictably challenging. Simply, because circumstances differ in each country. There is also the uncertainty how much people from different nations and cultures adhere to measures.